Brad Messer Commentary
8:15 a.m. Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2003

After USA and Friends attack Iraq and take over the oilfields, the world supply will increase. More petroleum supply will mean lower prices at the pump.

Lower prices will reduce the income of nations whose budgets are based significantly on oil. One of those is Saudi Arabia.

In the past quarter century, instead of increasing, the average income in Saudi Arabia has been shrinking. The rich aren't necessarily richer, but the poor are certainly much poorer. Per capita income now is only one-third of what it was in the late 1970s.

Saudi Arabian unemployment is above ten-percent. Morale under the Crown Prince has been almost nonexistant. Discontented people are ripe for change. That's what al Qaeda has been offering them. It is no coincidence that so many of the 9-11 terrorists were Saudis.

Back to the price of oil. After we invade and oil prices drop, Saudi Arabia's income will shrink even more. What is now extremely deep discontent, will become very much worse. You can almost imagine an al Qaeda recruiting office on every corner in Riyadh.

Anyone who thinks the ramifications of attacking North Korea would be more serious than hitting Iraq, might better do a little more thinking.

Brad Messer— commentary, KTSA.

Back to Brad's home page | Commentary Archive